On Thursday, October 15, 2026, AmerikaHaus NRW along with the University of Bonn’s North American Studies Program welcomed Tyson Barker and Dr. Samina Sultan to a panel discussion on the Trump Administration’s economic policies and their potential impacts on the upcoming 2026 midterms. Barker, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center who formerly held roles at the U.S. State Department, and Dr. Sultan, a Senior Economist at the German Economic Institute, brought together their expertise to hold an insightful discussion moderated by PD Dr. Jan Logemann of the University of Bonn.

The panel characterized the current state of the American economy as strong but extremely differentiated. While top earners were benefitting in this “K-shaped economy”, the rest was struggling.  The rapidly growing cost of living was squeezing many Americans, again making affordability a top concern for voters in the upcoming elections. Barker noted that major economic indicators, including inflation, growth, and mortgage rates, had developed negatively since 2024, and Dr. Sultan added that the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration had further driven up prices.

With respect to the broader political climate ahead of the elections, Barker noted that the midterms are generally viewed as a referendum on current administration. Within the Democratic Party, he identified four different camps vying for influence: the “establishment”, the Democratic Socialists, “insurgent centrists” such as James Talarico in Texas, and “Democratic-adjacent independents” especially in red states. Bringing together these competing factions would be no easy task for Democratic leaders in Congress. Dr. Sultan brought up the bipartisan backlash against the construction of AI data centers as another political headwind for the Trump Administration which could influence both the election results as well as the remainder of his term.

During and following the discussion, the panelists took audience questions about a variety of topics, including the regulation of AI, the role of military spending in the U.S. economy, whether the results of the upcoming midterms can be trusted, and how the trans-Atlantic relationship might be rebuilt in the post-Trump era.

We cordially thank Tyson Barker and Samina Sultan for sharing their expertise with us and everyone who joined us. We would also like to thank the North American Studies Program at the University of Bonn for their collaboration.

This event was kindly supported by the State Government of North Rhine-Westphalia.